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Saturday, 17 October 2026

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China: Easing case strengthens on weak PMIs – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao argues that two months of broad Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contraction leave China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth tracking below the official 4.5%-5.0% target, intensifying press…

Mexican Peso appreciates as USD/MXN dives on USD weakness

The Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciates by about 0.20% against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, even as risk appetite deteriorated amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which triggered a jump in energy prices. This exer…

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls defend trendline above 0.5900

The NZD/USD is poised to finish Monday’s session virtually unchanged near its opening price, despite a modest 0.08% gain as the US Dollar weakens amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The pair trades above 0.5900.

Gold slips as Warsh Fed hike bets, Oil rally lift US yields

Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats some 0.40% on Monday after last Friday's hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, which sparked speculation of a possible rate hike at the September meeting. Despite this…

US Dollar: Warsh boosts policy credibility – OCBC

OCBC FX Strategist Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech eased debasement concerns and supported the Dollar, with Gold lower and the US yield curve flatter. They say structur…

Bank of Canada: Policy on hold as tariffs bite – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% at the September 2 meeting and through 2027, despite markets pricing in around 17bp of tightening by year-end. They highlight stro…

Silver rebounds, but Fed rate-hike threat hangs over the metal

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Monday and trades around $66.70 at the time of writing, up 0.40% on the day. The main obstacle to a stronger recovery in Silver remains the shift in expectations surrounding the Federal Rese…

Bank of Canada: Tariffs reshape rate risks – NBC

National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% and maintain current balance sheet policy. They argue markets still overprice late-202…

Pound Sterling retreats as Japanese Yen attracts modest buying

GBP/JPY trades on the back foot on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its major peers. The Pound Sterling (GBP), meanwhile, lacks a fresh domestic catalyst as UK markets remain closed for the Summer Ba…

Oil: geopolitical support and Venezuela deal risk – BNY

BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong notes Oil prices are underpinned by renewed U.S.–Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump’s claim of a deal granting U.S. majority control over Venezuela’s vast reserves. Chong s…

Euro: Inflation test for ECB hike odds – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY argues that upcoming German CPI and Eurozone flash CPI are critical for European Central Bank expectations, with markets already pricing a near-certain September hike. While services inflation is softeni…

Indonesian Rupiah declines despite weaker US Dollar

USD/IDR extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 17,790 during the European hours on Monday. However, the upward momentum for USD/IDR remains capped by broader US Dollar (USD) weakness.